Actual result
D+1.1
Final polls said
R+1.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.2 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | National Research | R+6.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Research | 2014-10-01 | 400 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Impact Research | 2014-09-23 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |