Actual result
R+10.5
Final polls said
R+2.1
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | R+2.1 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+2.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+7.0 | 17.5 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2014-10-23 | 280 | R+2.1 | 8 |
| Remington Research Group | 2014-10-12 | 663 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Tarrance Group | 2014-10-08 | 400 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2014-10-01 | 400 | D+7.0 | 18 |
| GQR | 2014-09-16 | 400 | D+3.0 | 14 |