Actual result
R+24.2
Final polls said
R+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+21.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+18.9 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+18.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2014-10-26 | 600 | R+18.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-13 | 438 | R+21.0 | 3 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2014-09-29 | 604 | R+5.0 | 19 |