Actual result
R+19.8
Final polls said
R+16.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+18.8 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | R+23.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+26.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | R+10.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2014-10-23 | 727 | R+23.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-10-18 | 401 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-14 | 400 | R+26.0 | 6 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-06 | 609 | R+24.0 | 4 |