Actual result
R+10.4
Final polls said
R+2.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.1 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+3.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+5.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2014-10-23 | 704 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-10-21 | 400 | D+5.0 | 15 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-09-22 | 400 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-17 | 598 | D+8.0 | 18 |