Actual result
R+21.3
Final polls said
R+22.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | R+22.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+23.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | 2014-10-18 | 503 | R+22.0 | 1 |