Actual result
D+13.3
Final polls said
D+12.7
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+13.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+13.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+12.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | EPIC-MRA | D+15.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+15.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Glengariff Group | D+15.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+11.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Target Insyght | D+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+9.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Lake Research Partners | D+9.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Suffolk University | D+8.8 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | YouGov | D+8.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Denno Research | D+7.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Magellan Strategies | D+5.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 15 | We Ask America | D+3.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | Clout Research | D+2.6 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | ccAdvertising | R+1.0 | 14.3 | ✗ |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-11-02 | 1224 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 914 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2014-10-27 | 600 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-27 | 1159 | D+14.1 | 1 |
| Glengariff Group | 2014-10-23 | 600 | D+15.1 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-21 | 1000 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2394 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-20 | 723 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-19 | 919 | D+13.6 | 0 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2014-10-19 | 1032 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2014-10-18 | 600 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2014-10-13 | 957 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-12 | 1340 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-09 | 1306 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Clout Research | 2014-10-06 | 615 | D+2.6 | 11 |
| Glengariff Group | 2014-10-03 | 600 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-02 | 654 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2014-09-30 | 600 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-09-29 | 1178 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2014-09-28 | 600 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| ccAdvertising | 2014-09-27 | 679 | R+1.0 | 14 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2014-09-27 | 600 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2560 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Target Insyght | 2014-09-24 | 600 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-18 | 852 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| We Ask America | 2014-09-18 | 1182 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-17 | 750 | D+2.0 | 11 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-09-14 | 829 | D+2.0 | 11 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-09-14 | 717 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Denno Research | 2014-09-12 | 600 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-08 | 500 | D+8.8 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-06 | 687 | D+7.0 | 6 |