Actual result
D+13.5
Final polls said
D+16.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+16.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+11.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+16.3 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+24.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-11-01 | 750 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1868 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2014-10-20 | 806 | D+24.0 | 10 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2014-10-16 | 525 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2014-10-07 | 810 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-04 | 477 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-27 | 1058 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2011 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2014-09-07 | 807 | D+13.0 | 1 |