Actual result
D+11.1
Final polls said
D+9.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+12.9 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | D+13.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+7.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Vox Populi Polling | D+6.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | D+17.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2014-10-22 | 614 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-10-21 | 614 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 962 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-29 | 727 | D+17.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1093 | D+18.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-22 | 830 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2014-09-10 | 603 | D+13.0 | 2 |