Actual result
R+19.8
Final polls said
R+22.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+20.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | R+18.3 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+22.3 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+15.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1566 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1566 | R+29.0 | 7 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2014-10-16 | 917 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2014-10-16 | 917 | R+27.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2663 | R+17.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2663 | R+23.0 | 1 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2014-09-25 | 1082 | R+18.3 | 1 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2014-09-25 | 1082 | R+20.6 | 2 |