Actual result
R+27.2
Final polls said
R+22.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+24.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+22.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+21.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Texas Lyceum | R+18.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 3987 | R+22.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-14 | 866 | R+26.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-01 | 850 | R+21.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 4177 | R+20.0 | 7 |
| Texas Lyceum | 2014-09-18 | 666 | R+18.0 | 9 |