Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
D+8.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | D+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+7.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+12.6 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-29 | 937 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-10-27 | 734 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2014-10-26 | 634 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2014-10-22 | 459 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1605 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2014-10-03 | 444 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2014-10-02 | 690 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1656 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-22 | 625 | D+13.0 | 12 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-19 | 1010 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2014-09-16 | 630 | D+19.0 | 18 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2014-09-04 | 713 | D+22.0 | 21 |