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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Virginia Senate
In the 2014 Virginia Senate race, Mark R. Warner (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
D+8.0
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | D+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+7.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
12 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-10-298
Vox Populi Polling2014-10-273
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership2014-10-266
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research2014-10-229
YouGov2014-10-209
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Virginia Senate race?
Mark R. Warner (D) won, by about 0.8 points (D+0.8).
When was the 2014 Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.