Actual result
D+7.3
Final polls said
D+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+10.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Moore Information Group | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-10-17 | 400 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Moore Information Group | 2016-10-04 | 400 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-09-24 | 400 | D+7.0 | 0 |