Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+15.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+9.9 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | R+5.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | R+3.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-11-02 | 417 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2016-10-11 | 400 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-09-21 | 327 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Tarrance Group | 2016-09-21 | 400 | R+15.0 | 1 |