Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-18 | 595 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-10-10 | 514 | D+8.0 | 7 |