Actual result
R+22.0
Final polls said
R+25.5
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+30.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+25.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+30.3 | 8.3 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2016-10-21 | 625 | R+25.5 | 4 |