Actual result
D+30.3
Final polls said
D+20.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+19.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zia Poll | D+20.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+19.9 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zia Poll | 2016-10-11 | 512 | D+20.0 | 10 |
| Zia Poll | 2016-09-24 | 593 | D+20.0 | 10 |