Actual result
R+25.5
Final polls said
R+23.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+26.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+26.1 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zia Poll | R+23.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zia Poll | 2016-10-11 | 512 | R+23.0 | 2 |
| Zia Poll | 2016-09-24 | 410 | R+23.0 | 2 |