Actual result
R+9.8
Final polls said
R+21.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+21.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.7 | 11.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2016-10-29 | 607 | R+21.0 | 11 |
| Siena College | 2016-10-01 | 661 | R+15.0 | 5 |