Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
EVEN
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | R+6.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+5.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2016-11-02 | 605 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-29 | 598 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-23 | 1218 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Siena College | 2016-09-21 | 678 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-09-13 | 532 | D+5.0 | 8 |