Actual result
R+13.2
Final polls said
R+23.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+23.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+24.1 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2016-10-18 | 673 | R+23.0 | 10 |
| Siena College | 2016-09-26 | 655 | R+19.0 | 6 |