Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Arizona Senate

In the 2016 Arizona Senate race, John McCain (R) won by about 13 points.

Actual result

R+13.0

Final polls said

R+9.3

12 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Big Village	R+13.0	0.0	✓
2	Data Orbital	R+12.0	1.0	✓
3	Lucid	R+12.0	1.0	✓
4	Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy	R+11.9	1.1	✓
5	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+10.0	3.0	✓
6	HighGround Inc.	R+10.0	3.0	✓
7	Marist College	R+16.0	3.0	✓
8	Leger	R+8.0	5.0	✓
9	Emerson College	R+6.0	7.0	✓
10	SurveyMonkey	R+5.0	8.0	✓
11	YouGov	R+5.0	8.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓