Actual result
R+13.0
Final polls said
R+9.3
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Village | R+13.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data Orbital | R+12.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Lucid | R+12.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+11.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | HighGround Inc. | R+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | R+16.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Leger | R+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+6.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyMonkey | R+5.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | YouGov | R+5.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Orbital | 2016-11-05 | 550 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 392 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2609 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-11-01 | 550 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-31 | 719 | R+16.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 700 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-30 | 1113 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-10-29 | 550 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-29 | 769 | R+13.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1457 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 994 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-23 | 401 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2016-10-14 | 400 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2016-10-12 | 660 | R+11.9 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1028 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-03 | 600 | R+15.4 | 2 |
| Leger | 2016-09-13 | 484 | R+18.0 | 5 |