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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Arizona Senate
In the 2016 Arizona Senate race, John McCain (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+13.0
Final polls said
R+9.3
12 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Village | R+13.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data Orbital | R+12.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lucid | R+12.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+11.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | HighGround Inc. | R+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | R+16.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Leger | R+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | R+6.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyMonkey | R+5.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | R+5.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data Orbital2016-11-051
Leger2016-11-055
SurveyMonkey2016-11-048
Data Orbital2016-11-012
Marist College2016-10-313
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Arizona Senate race?
John McCain (R) won, by about 13.0 points (R+13.0).
When was the 2016 Arizona Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.