Actual result
D+23.2
Final polls said
D+20.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+21.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+24.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Leger | D+22.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+22.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | California State University, Sacramento | D+25.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+21.2 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | D+21.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+17.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 401 | D+22.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2712 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-30 | 747 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-28 | 1498 | D+24.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2505 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 2016-10-26 | 1382 | D+17.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2016-10-18 | 1024 | D+22.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-14 | 725 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| California State University, Sacramento | 2016-10-10 | 622 | D+25.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-09 | 1250 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-27 | 751 | D+11.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2016-09-13 | 1055 | D+7.0 | 16 |
| Leger | 2016-09-13 | 515 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-10 | 712 | D+17.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-10 | 1426 | D+22.0 | 1 |