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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
California Senate
In the 2016 California Senate race, Kamala Harris (D) won by about 23 points.
Actual result
D+23.2
Final polls said
D+20.9
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+24.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Leger | D+22.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+22.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | California State University, Sacramento | D+25.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | D+21.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+17.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Leger2016-11-051
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
SurveyUSA2016-10-303
YouGov2016-10-281
SurveyMonkey2016-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 California Senate race?
Kamala Harris (D) won, by about 23.2 points (D+23.2).
When was the 2016 California Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.