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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
California Senate
In the 2016 California Senate race, Kamala Harris (D) won with 61.6% of the vote. The Democratic-Republican margin was D+23.2.
Actual result
D+23.2
Final polls said
D+20.9
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+24.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Leger | D+22.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+22.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | California State University, Sacramento | D+25.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | D+21.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+17.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Leger2016-11-051
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
SurveyUSA2016-10-303
YouGov2016-10-281
SurveyMonkey2016-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 California Senate race?
Kamala Harris (D) won, with 61.6% of the vote. The two-party Democratic-Republican margin was D+23.2, which is what VotePredictor's model forecasts.
When was the 2016 California Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.