Actual result
D+42.0
Final polls said
D+41.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+40.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+42.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+40.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+46.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+46.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2208 | D+46.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2016-11-03 | 617 | D+42.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1734 | D+40.0 | 2 |
| Siena College | 2016-10-15 | 611 | D+39.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2016-09-22 | 676 | D+46.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2016-09-13 | 600 | D+46.0 | 4 |