Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Pennsylvania Senate

In the 2016 Pennsylvania Senate race, Patrick J. Toomey (R) won by about 1 point.

Actual result

R+1.4

Final polls said

D+2.6

23 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	R+1.0	0.4	✓
2	Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics	R+1.0	0.4	✓
3	GQR	R+2.0	0.6	✓
4	Harper Polling	EVEN	1.4	✗
5	Lucid	EVEN	1.4	✗
6	YouGov	D+1.0	2.4	✗
7	Quinnipiac University	D+1.0	2.4	✗
8	Rasmussen Reports	R+4.0	2.6	✓
9	Gravis Marketing	D+2.0	3.4	✗
10	Public Policy Polling	D+2.0	3.4	✗
11	Emerson College	D+2.0	3.4	✗
12	Selzer & Co.	D+2.0	3.4	✗
13	Clarity Campaign Labs	D+3.0	4.4	✗
14	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+3.0	4.4	✗
15	The New York Times/Siena College	D+3.0	4.4	✗
16	SurveyMonkey	D+4.0	5.4	✗
17	Marist College	D+4.0	5.4	✗
18	Big Village	D+5.0	6.4	✗
19	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+6.0	7.4	✗
20	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+12.0	13.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 59%	0.343	✗
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 62%	0.384	✗
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗