Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
D+2.6
23 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Harper Polling | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Lucid | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | Emerson College | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Selzer & Co. | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | SurveyMonkey | D+4.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | Big Village | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+6.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+12.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 61% | 0.369 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.384 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (41)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2016-11-04 | 931 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2845 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-11-03 | 1033 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Harper Polling | 2016-11-02 | 504 | EVEN | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1016 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-11-01 | 405 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2016-10-31 | 681 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-31 | 403 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 1050 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 612 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-29 | 799 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2255 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2016-10-28 | 652 | D+12.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 1091 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-27 | 3217 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-25 | 550 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-10-24 | 824 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-10-23 | 420 | EVEN | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-18 | 800 | R+3.2 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 660 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1449 | EVEN | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 1457 | EVEN | 1 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-09 | 806 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-06 | 997 | EVEN | 1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2016-10-06 | 764 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-05 | 709 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-02 | 402 | EVEN | 1 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2016-09-30 | 496 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 535 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 886 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-23 | 949 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-22 | 771 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Harper Polling | 2016-09-21 | 500 | EVEN | 1 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-09-21 | 486 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | 2016-09-18 | 420 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2016-09-14 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-09-14 | 405 | D+5.0 | 6 |