Actual result
D+14.1
Final polls said
D+15.1
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | D+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+15.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Change Research | D+16.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+16.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | D+10.7 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2017-11-03 | 2040 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2017-11-02 | 662 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-10-31 | 611 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2017-10-31 | 800 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2017-10-29 | 529 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2017-10-27 | 500 | D+15.6 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2017-10-27 | 540 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2017-10-21 | 1049 | D+20.0 | 6 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2017-10-21 | 525 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2017-10-15 | 679 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2017-10-13 | 658 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2017-10-08 | 585 | D+18.0 | 4 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2017-09-30 | 452 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2017-09-30 | 300 | D+11.4 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2017-09-21 | 500 | D+19.4 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2017-09-18 | 804 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2017-09-09 | 875 | D+25.0 | 11 |