Actual result
D+8.9
Final polls said
D+3.3
24 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+6.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+6.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.5 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | D+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | D+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Suffolk University | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.8 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | IMGE Insights | D+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 17 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 18 | VotePredictor | D+0.6 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 19 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 20 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | EVEN | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 21 | Øptimus Analytics | R+3.0 | 11.9 | ✗ |
| 22 | Hampton University Center for Public Policy | R+8.0 | 16.9 | ✗ |
Polls (41)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2017-11-04 | 800 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| IMGE Insights | 2017-11-04 | 800 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2017-11-04 | 713 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2017-11-04 | 1239 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2017-11-03 | 810 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2017-11-03 | 3648 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2017-11-02 | 1056 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2017-11-02 | 875 | EVEN | 9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2017-11-01 | 1200 | D+1.8 | 7 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2017-11-01 | 839 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-11-01 | 1143 | D+5.5 | 3 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2017-11-01 | 800 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2017-11-01 | 1600 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2017-10-31 | 781 | EVEN | 9 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2017-10-31 | 985 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2017-10-31 | 500 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2017-10-28 | 921 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2017-10-27 | 916 | D+17.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2017-10-26 | 666 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2017-10-25 | 800 | EVEN | 9 |
| IMGE Insights | 2017-10-23 | 800 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2017-10-22 | 812 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 2017-10-20 | 750 | R+8.0 | 17 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2017-10-16 | 697 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2017-10-14 | 1088 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2017-10-14 | 408 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2017-10-11 | 642 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2017-10-10 | 607 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2017-10-06 | 318 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2017-10-04 | 928 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2017-09-30 | 720 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2017-09-23 | 499 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2017-09-22 | 849 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2017-09-20 | 596 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2017-09-17 | 507 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2017-09-17 | 776 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2017-09-16 | 850 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| IMGE Insights | 2017-09-15 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2017-09-15 | 500 | EVEN | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2017-09-12 | 625 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2017-09-09 | 562 | D+5.0 | 4 |