Toss-up · 2018 Governor

Arizona Governor

In the 2018 Arizona Governor race, Doug Ducey (R) won by about 14 points.

Actual result

R+14.2

Final polls said

R+15.4

14 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Harris Insights & Analytics	R+14.3	0.1	✓
2	Marist College	R+14.0	0.2	✓
3	Research Co.	R+15.0	0.8	✓
4	Emerson College	R+15.1	0.9	✓
5	Gravis Marketing	R+13.0	1.2	✓
6	Data Orbital	R+15.6	1.5	✓
7	Suffolk University	R+11.6	2.6	✓
8	YouGov	R+11.0	3.2	✓
9	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+18.0	3.8	✓
10	Noble Predictive Insights	R+18.0	3.8	✓
11	HighGround Inc.	R+19.5	5.3	✓
12	Ipsos	R+20.0	5.8	✓
13	Vox Populi Polling	R+8.0	6.2	✓
14	Change Research	R+7.6	6.6	✓
15	SSRS	R+7.0	7.2	✓
16	Latino Decisions	R+5.0	9.2	✓
17	TargetSmart	R+1.0	13.2	✓