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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Arizona Governor
In the 2018 Arizona Governor race, Doug Ducey (R) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
R+14.2
Final polls said
R+15.4
14 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+14.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | R+14.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | R+15.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+15.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | R+13.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Data Orbital | R+15.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | R+11.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+18.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+18.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | HighGround Inc. | R+19.5 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Ipsos | R+20.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Vox Populi Polling | R+8.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | Change Research | R+7.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | SSRS | R+7.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 16 | Latino Decisions | R+5.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 17 | TargetSmart | R+1.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
27 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-040
Research Co.2018-11-021
Emerson College2018-11-021
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-016
Vox Populi Polling2018-10-296
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arizona Governor race?
Doug Ducey (R) won, by about 14.2 points (R+14.2).
When was the 2018 Arizona Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.