Actual result
R+14.2
Final polls said
R+15.4
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+14.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | R+14.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | R+15.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+15.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | R+13.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Data Orbital | R+15.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | R+11.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+18.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+18.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+18.6 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | HighGround Inc. | R+19.5 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Ipsos | R+20.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Vox Populi Polling | R+8.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 15 | Change Research | R+7.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | SSRS | R+7.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 17 | Latino Decisions | R+5.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 18 | TargetSmart | R+1.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+14.3 | 0 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-02 | 758 | R+15.1 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+19.9 | 6 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-29 | 677 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-28 | 643 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-28 | 1165 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2018-10-27 | 400 | R+19.5 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-27 | 1400 | R+22.2 | 8 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-26 | 702 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-25 | 972 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-25 | 506 | R+14.0 | 0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2018-10-22 | 600 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-21 | 799 | R+20.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-09 | 783 | R+7.6 | 7 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2018-10-03 | 600 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Data Orbital | 2018-10-02 | 550 | R+15.6 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 716 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-30 | 702 | R+14.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-09-29 | 500 | R+11.6 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-20 | 650 | R+3.6 | 11 |
| Marist College | 2018-09-18 | 564 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Latino Decisions | 2018-09-18 | 463 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| SSRS | 2018-09-13 | 761 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 710 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| TargetSmart | 2018-09-10 | 800 | R+1.0 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-09 | 1016 | R+11.6 | 3 |