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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
California Governor
In the 2018 California Governor race, Gavin Newsom (D) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
D+23.9
Final polls said
D+15.6
11 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | D+23.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+20.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Vox Populi Polling | D+20.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+19.9 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+19.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+18.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | D+13.4 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ipsos | D+12.7 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Change Research | D+12.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+11.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Probolsky Research | D+10.5 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-0312
Research Co.2018-11-024
SurveyUSA2018-11-019
Probolsky Research2018-10-2713
Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus2018-10-2610
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California Governor race?
Gavin Newsom (D) won, by about 23.9 points (D+23.9).
When was the 2018 California Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.