Actual result
D+23.9
Final polls said
D+15.6
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | D+23.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+20.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Vox Populi Polling | D+20.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+19.9 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+19.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+18.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+15.1 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | D+13.4 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Ipsos | D+12.7 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | Change Research | D+12.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+11.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | Probolsky Research | D+10.5 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 1108 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-11-01 | 924 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| Probolsky Research | 2018-10-27 | 900 | D+10.5 | 13 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-10-26 | 1068 | D+13.4 | 10 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-25 | 743 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-10-22 | 1339 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-10-19 | 1068 | D+12.5 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-18 | 671 | D+19.9 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-17 | 2178 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2018-10-16 | 989 | D+11.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-13 | 762 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-10-13 | 1068 | D+7.4 | 17 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-10-06 | 1068 | D+11.6 | 12 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2018-10-01 | 794 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-09-29 | 1068 | D+5.0 | 19 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-09-22 | 1068 | D+11.0 | 13 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-17 | 500 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-09-15 | 1040 | D+4.1 | 20 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2018-09-13 | 964 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-09 | 1021 | D+12.7 | 11 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus | 2018-09-08 | 1227 | D+8.2 | 16 |