Toss-up · 2018 Governor

California Governor

In the 2018 California Governor race, Gavin Newsom (D) won by about 24 points.

Actual result

D+23.9

Final polls said

D+15.6

11 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research	D+23.0	0.9	✓
2	Research Co.	D+20.0	3.9	✓
3	Gravis Marketing	D+20.0	3.9	✓
4	Vox Populi Polling	D+20.0	3.9	✓
5	Emerson College	D+19.9	4.0	✓
6	YouGov	D+19.0	4.9	✓
7	University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies	D+18.0	5.9	✓
8	SurveyUSA	D+15.0	8.9	✓
9	Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus	D+13.4	10.5	✓
10	Ipsos	D+12.7	11.2	✓
11	Change Research	D+12.0	11.9	✓
12	Public Policy Institute of California	D+11.0	12.9	✓
13	Probolsky Research	D+10.5	13.4	✓