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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Florida Governor
In the 2018 Florida Governor race, Ron DeSantis (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
D+2.8
35 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+0.6 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Targoz Market Research | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | 1892 Polling | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | MWR Strategies | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | SSRS | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Strategic Research Associates | R+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | OnMessage Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+2.4 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research | D+3.3 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | St. Pete Polls | D+4.1 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.4 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 20 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | D+4.7 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 21 | Emerson College | D+5.3 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | Vox Populi Polling | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | Ipsos | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | Cherry Communications | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 27 | Rasmussen Reports | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 28 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | R+7.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 29 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 31 | KFF | D+8.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 32 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+11.8 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 77% | 0.596 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
51 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-043
Trafalgar Group2018-11-043
St. Pete Polls2018-11-034
Emerson College2018-11-026
Research Co.2018-11-021
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida Governor race?
Ron DeSantis (R) won, by about 0.4 points (R+0.4).
When was the 2018 Florida Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.