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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Florida Governor
In the 2018 Florida Governor race, Ron DeSantis (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
D+2.8
35 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+0.6 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Targoz Market Research | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | 1892 Polling | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | MWR Strategies | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | SSRS | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Strategic Research Associates | R+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | OnMessage Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+2.4 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research | D+3.3 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | St. Pete Polls | D+4.1 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.4 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 20 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | D+4.7 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 21 | Emerson College | D+5.3 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | Vox Populi Polling | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | Ipsos | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | Cherry Communications | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 27 | Rasmussen Reports | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 28 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | R+7.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 29 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 31 | KFF | D+8.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 32 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+11.8 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 70% | 0.091 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 77% | 0.596 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
51 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-043
Trafalgar Group2018-11-043
St. Pete Polls2018-11-034
Emerson College2018-11-026
Research Co.2018-11-021
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida Governor race?
Ron DeSantis (R) won, by about 0.4 points (R+0.4).
When was the 2018 Florida Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.