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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Iowa Governor
In the 2018 Iowa Governor race, Kim Reynolds (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
D+2.1
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+3.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | D+2.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative | D+7.4 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 57% | 0.327 | ✗ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 57% | 0.329 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-036
Selzer & Co.2018-11-015
Emerson College2018-10-311
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative2018-10-1510
Selzer & Co.2018-09-195
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Iowa Governor race?
Kim Reynolds (R) won, by about 2.7 points (R+2.7).
When was the 2018 Iowa Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.