Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
D+2.1
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+3.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | D+2.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative | D+7.4 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 961 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2018-11-01 | 801 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-31 | 1462 | R+3.9 | 1 |
| University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative | 2018-10-15 | 452 | D+7.4 | 10 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2018-09-19 | 555 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-07 | 1000 | D+4.6 | 7 |