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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Iowa Governor
In the 2018 Iowa Governor race, Kim Reynolds (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
D+2.1
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+3.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | D+2.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative | D+7.4 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 61% | 0.149 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 57% | 0.329 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-036
Selzer & Co.2018-11-015
Emerson College2018-10-311
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative2018-10-1510
Selzer & Co.2018-09-195
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Iowa Governor race?
Kim Reynolds (R) won, by about 2.7 points (R+2.7).
When was the 2018 Iowa Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.