Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+8.6
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic National | D+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+10.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+7.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+7.1 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Glengariff Group | D+12.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Ipsos | D+13.6 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+14.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | EPIC-MRA | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Research Co. | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Target Insyght | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-11-05 | 827 | D+7.8 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-11-04 | 701 | D+14.0 | 4 |
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 880 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Glengariff Group | 2018-10-26 | 600 | D+12.5 | 3 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-10-25 | 400 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 822 | D+10.4 | 1 |
| Target Insyght | 2018-10-23 | 800 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2018-10-20 | 600 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Impact Research | 2018-10-18 | 906 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | 2018-10-17 | 169 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2018-10-16 | 600 | D+14.0 | 4 |
| Impact Research | 2018-10-11 | 800 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-10-04 | 654 | D+7.5 | 2 |
| Glengariff Group | 2018-10-01 | 600 | D+11.6 | 2 |
| Impact Research | 2018-09-27 | 800 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2018-09-23 | 600 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-18 | 1150 | D+13.6 | 4 |
| Target Insyght | 2018-09-12 | 800 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-09-12 | 1009 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Impact Research | 2018-09-10 | 798 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Strategic National | 2018-09-08 | 1000 | D+10.0 | 0 |