← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Michigan Governor
In the 2018 Michigan Governor race, Gretchen Whitmer (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+8.6
12 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic National | D+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+10.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+7.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Glengariff Group | D+12.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | D+13.6 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+14.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | EPIC-MRA | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Research Co. | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Target Insyght | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Mitchell Research & Communications2018-11-052
Mitchell Research & Communications2018-11-044
Change Research2018-11-032
Research Co.2018-11-026
Glengariff Group2018-10-263
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan Governor race?
Gretchen Whitmer (D) won, by about 9.6 points (D+9.6).
When was the 2018 Michigan Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.