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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Michigan Governor
In the 2018 Michigan Governor race, Gretchen Whitmer (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+8.6
12 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic National | D+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+10.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+7.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Glengariff Group | D+12.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | D+13.6 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+14.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | EPIC-MRA | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Research Co. | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Target Insyght | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Mitchell Research & Communications2018-11-052
Mitchell Research & Communications2018-11-044
Change Research2018-11-032
Research Co.2018-11-026
Glengariff Group2018-10-263
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan Governor race?
Gretchen Whitmer (D) won, by about 9.6 points (D+9.6).
When was the 2018 Michigan Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.