← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Minnesota Governor
In the 2018 Minnesota Governor race, Tim Walz (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+9.6
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | D+12.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+15.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Cloud State University | D+16.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-031
Research Co.2018-11-025
SurveyUSA2018-10-303
St. Cloud State University2018-10-235
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-165
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota Governor race?
Tim Walz (D) won, by about 11.4 points (D+11.4).
When was the 2018 Minnesota Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.