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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Minnesota Governor
In the 2018 Minnesota Governor race, Tim Walz (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+9.6
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | D+12.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+15.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Cloud State University | D+16.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-031
Research Co.2018-11-025
SurveyUSA2018-10-303
St. Cloud State University2018-10-235
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-165
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota Governor race?
Tim Walz (D) won, by about 11.4 points (D+11.4).
When was the 2018 Minnesota Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.