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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
New Mexico Governor
In the 2018 New Mexico Governor race, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+14.4
Final polls said
D+9.2
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+12.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+10.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pacific Market Research | D+10.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+9.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+9.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Carroll Strategies | D+5.1 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | D+3.2 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-022
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-294
Carroll Strategies2018-10-299
Emerson College2018-10-255
GQR2018-10-245
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico Governor race?
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won, by about 14.4 points (D+14.4).
When was the 2018 New Mexico Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.