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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
New Mexico Governor
In the 2018 New Mexico Governor race, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+14.4
Final polls said
D+9.2
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+12.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+10.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pacific Market Research | D+10.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+9.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+9.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Carroll Strategies | D+5.1 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | D+3.2 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-022
Research & Polling Inc.2018-10-294
Carroll Strategies2018-10-299
Emerson College2018-10-255
GQR2018-10-245
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico Governor race?
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won, by about 14.4 points (D+14.4).
When was the 2018 New Mexico Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.