Actual result
D+14.4
Final polls said
D+9.2
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+12.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+10.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pacific Market Research | D+10.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+9.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+9.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+7.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Carroll Strategies | D+5.1 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | D+3.2 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-10-29 | 993 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Carroll Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 1200 | D+5.1 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 936 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| GQR | 2018-10-24 | 600 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Pacific Market Research | 2018-10-21 | 400 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| NSON Opinion Strategy/In Lux Research | 2018-09-22 | 932 | D+3.2 | 11 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2018-09-10 | 966 | D+7.0 | 7 |