Actual result
D+24.0
Final polls said
D+15.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+23.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+23.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+17.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+15.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Siena College | D+13.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| Siena College | 2018-10-30 | 641 | D+13.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-13 | 852 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-06 | 783 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2018-09-24 | 701 | D+22.0 | 2 |