Actual result
R+3.7
Final polls said
D+2.3
7 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+4.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | R+1.5 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+1.4 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | R+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | R+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | R+0.6 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cygnal | R+0.2 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Research Co. | EVEN | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | EVEN | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+3.5 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | D+3.6 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Change Research | D+5.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Suffolk University | D+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 923 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-03 | 1948 | D+3.6 | 7 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | EVEN | 4 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-30 | 503 | R+0.2 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-29 | 789 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-27 | 566 | D+3.5 | 7 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2018-10-23 | 1051 | R+0.6 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-10-06 | 500 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2018-10-03 | 1017 | R+2.6 | 1 |
| University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | 2018-09-22 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2018-09-19 | 1003 | R+4.7 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2018-09-18 | 564 | EVEN | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-17 | 1074 | R+1.5 | 2 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2018-09-10 | 1048 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2018-09-06 | 1592 | R+1.0 | 3 |