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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Pennsylvania Governor
In the 2018 Pennsylvania Governor race, Thomas W. Wolf (D) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
D+17.1
Final polls said
D+18.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | D+17.1 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+15.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+21.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Change Research | D+11.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+26.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-036
Research Co.2018-11-022
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2018-10-304
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2018-10-259
Morning Consult2018-10-015
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania Governor race?
Thomas W. Wolf (D) won, by about 17.1 points (D+17.1).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.