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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Pennsylvania Governor
In the 2018 Pennsylvania Governor race, Thomas W. Wolf (D) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
D+17.1
Final polls said
D+18.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | D+17.1 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+15.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+21.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Change Research | D+11.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+26.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-036
Research Co.2018-11-022
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2018-10-304
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2018-10-259
Morning Consult2018-10-015
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania Governor race?
Thomas W. Wolf (D) won, by about 17.1 points (D+17.1).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.