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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Tennessee Governor
In the 2018 Tennessee Governor race, Bill Lee (R) won by about 21 points.
Actual result
R+21.0
Final polls said
R+14.1
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+22.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | R+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+16.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+26.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+13.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Vox Populi Polling | R+12.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory | R+12.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyMonkey | R+11.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | SSRS | R+10.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Targoz Market Research | R+9.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Targoz Market Research2018-10-3012
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-294
Emerson College2018-10-298
Vox Populi Polling2018-10-289
Cygnal2018-10-261
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Tennessee Governor race?
Bill Lee (R) won, by about 21.0 points (R+21.0).
When was the 2018 Tennessee Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.