Actual result
R+21.0
Final polls said
R+14.1
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+19.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+22.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | R+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+16.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+26.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Emerson College | R+13.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Vox Populi Polling | R+12.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory | R+12.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyMonkey | R+11.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | SSRS | R+10.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Targoz Market Research | R+9.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | 2018-10-30 | 480 | R+9.0 | 12 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-29 | 718 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-29 | 632 | R+13.4 | 8 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-28 | 780 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-26 | 497 | R+22.4 | 1 |
| East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory | 2018-10-26 | 495 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-26 | 764 | R+10.0 | 11 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-25 | 471 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2018-10-11 | 558 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-10 | 800 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-10 | 593 | R+26.0 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 666 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2018-09-17 | 1609 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-17 | 567 | R+9.0 | 12 |
| SSRS | 2018-09-13 | 723 | R+9.0 | 12 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2018-09-11 | 1038 | R+16.4 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 686 | R+20.0 | 1 |