← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Tennessee Governor
In the 2018 Tennessee Governor race, Bill Lee (R) won by about 21 points.
Actual result
R+21.0
Final polls said
R+14.1
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+22.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | R+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+16.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+26.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+13.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Vox Populi Polling | R+12.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory | R+12.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyMonkey | R+11.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | SSRS | R+10.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Targoz Market Research | R+9.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Targoz Market Research2018-10-3012
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-294
Emerson College2018-10-298
Vox Populi Polling2018-10-289
Cygnal2018-10-261
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Tennessee Governor race?
Bill Lee (R) won, by about 21.0 points (R+21.0).
When was the 2018 Tennessee Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.