Actual result
D+1.1
Final polls said
D+2.2
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+2.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+4.8 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | D+8.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-30 | 604 | D+4.8 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2018-10-26 | 1154 | EVEN | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-15 | 1193 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2018-10-05 | 799 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-02 | 571 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-18 | 1109 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2018-09-14 | 614 | D+5.0 | 4 |