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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Wisconsin Governor
In the 2018 Wisconsin Governor race, Tony Evers (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.1
Final polls said
D+2.2
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+4.8 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | D+8.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 60% | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 66% | 0.434 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-020
Emerson College2018-10-304
Marquette University Law School2018-10-261
Ipsos2018-10-152
Marquette University Law School2018-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Wisconsin Governor race?
Tony Evers (D) won, by about 1.1 points (D+1.1).
When was the 2018 Wisconsin Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.