Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+1.2
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | D+2.4 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | EVEN | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.2 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Go Right Strategies | R+6.9 | 14.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.199 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 54% | 0.208 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Øptimus Analytics | 2018-10-31 | 756 | D+2.4 | 5 |
| American Viewpoint | 2018-10-17 | 400 | EVEN | 8 |
| Go Right Strategies | 2018-10-09 | 943 | R+6.9 | 15 |
| Go Right Strategies | 2018-09-27 | 738 | R+3.2 | 11 |