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Toss-up · 2018 House
Arizona House
In the 2018 Arizona House race, Tom O'Halleran (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+1.2
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | D+2.4 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | EVEN | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Go Right Strategies | R+6.9 | 14.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 58% | 0.180 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.199 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Øptimus Analytics2018-10-315
American Viewpoint2018-10-178
Go Right Strategies2018-10-0915
Go Right Strategies2018-09-2711
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arizona House race?
Tom O'Halleran (D) won, by about 7.7 points (D+7.7).
When was the 2018 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2018.