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Toss-up · 2018 House
Arizona House
In the 2018 Arizona House race, Tom O'Halleran (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+1.2
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | D+2.4 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | EVEN | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Go Right Strategies | R+6.9 | 14.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 58% | 0.179 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 55% | 0.199 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Øptimus Analytics2018-10-315
American Viewpoint2018-10-178
Go Right Strategies2018-10-0915
Go Right Strategies2018-09-2711
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arizona House race?
Tom O'Halleran (D) won, by about 7.7 points (D+7.7).
When was the 2018 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.