Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+14.4 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+17.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 51% | 0.236 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2018-10-20 | 597 | D+17.0 | 9 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2018-09-15 | 535 | D+23.0 | 15 |