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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Jersey House
In the 2018 New Jersey House race, Jeff Van Drew (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+17.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 52% | 0.235 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2018-10-209
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2018-09-1515
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Jersey House race?
Jeff Van Drew (D) won, by about 7.7 points (D+7.7).
When was the 2018 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.