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Toss-up · 2018 House
Virginia House
In the 2018 Virginia House race, Jennifer T. Wexton (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+12.4
Final polls said
D+8.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+10.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+9.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.4 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | TargetPoint | EVEN | 12.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+1.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government2018-10-271
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government2018-10-181
TargetPoint2018-10-1512
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-135
Global Strategy Group2018-10-082
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia House race?
Jennifer T. Wexton (D) won, by about 12.4 points (D+12.4).
When was the 2018 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.