Toss-up · 2018 House

Virginia House

In the 2018 Virginia House race, Jennifer T. Wexton (D) won by about 12 points.

Actual result

D+12.4

Final polls said

D+8.0

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	D+11.0	1.4	✓
2	Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership	D+11.0	1.4	✓
3	Global Strategy Group	D+10.0	2.4	✓
4	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+9.0	3.4	✓
5	The New York Times/Siena College	D+7.4	5.0	✓
6	TargetPoint	EVEN	12.4	✗
7	McLaughlin & Associates	R+1.0	13.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 87%	0.018	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 71%	0.086	✓