Actual result
D+12.4
Final polls said
D+8.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+10.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+9.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.4 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+5.1 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | TargetPoint | EVEN | 12.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+1.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2018-10-27 | 446 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2018-10-18 | 430 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| TargetPoint | 2018-10-15 | 421 | EVEN | 12 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-13 | 484 | D+7.4 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-10-08 | 400 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2018-10-07 | 400 | R+1.0 | 13 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-28 | 374 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2018-09-27 | 711 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2018-09-27 | 866 | D+12.0 | 0 |