Actual result
D+8.3
Final polls said
D+12.4
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+9.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+10.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Vox Populi Polling | D+10.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Probolsky Research | D+5.7 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+11.3 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | 1st Tuesday Campaigns | D+13.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | D+13.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+16.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Emerson College | D+18.1 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Research Co. | D+19.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Ipsos | D+20.3 | 12.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 1108 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+19.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-11-01 | 806 | D+14.0 | 6 |
| Probolsky Research | 2018-10-27 | 900 | D+5.7 | 3 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-10-22 | 1339 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-18 | 671 | D+18.1 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-17 | 2178 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2018-10-16 | 989 | D+16.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-13 | 762 | D+14.0 | 6 |
| 1st Tuesday Campaigns | 2018-10-05 | 1038 | D+13.0 | 5 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2018-10-01 | 794 | D+13.0 | 5 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-17 | 500 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2018-09-13 | 964 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-09 | 1021 | D+20.3 | 12 |