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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
California Senate
In the 2018 California Senate race, Dianne Feinstein (D) won with 54.2% of the vote. The Democratic-Republican margin was D+8.3.
Actual result
D+8.3
Final polls said
D+12.4
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+9.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+10.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Vox Populi Polling | D+10.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Probolsky Research | D+5.7 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | 1st Tuesday Campaigns | D+13.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | D+13.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+16.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+18.1 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Research Co. | D+19.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Ipsos | D+20.3 | 12.0 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
14 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-032
Research Co.2018-11-0211
SurveyUSA2018-11-016
Probolsky Research2018-10-273
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-10-221
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California Senate race?
Dianne Feinstein (D) won, with 54.2% of the vote. The two-party Democratic-Republican margin was D+8.3, which is what VotePredictor's model forecasts.
When was the 2018 California Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.