Toss-up · 2018 Senate

California Senate

In the 2018 California Senate race, Dianne Feinstein (D) won by about 8 points.

Actual result

D+8.3

Final polls said

D+12.4

8 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies	D+9.0	0.7	✓
2	YouGov	D+7.0	1.3	✓
3	Change Research	D+10.0	1.7	✓
4	Vox Populi Polling	D+10.0	1.7	✓
5	Probolsky Research	D+5.7	2.6	✓
6	1st Tuesday Campaigns	D+13.0	4.7	✓
7	University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research	D+13.0	4.7	✓
8	SurveyUSA	D+14.0	5.7	✓
9	Public Policy Institute of California	D+16.0	7.7	✓
10	Emerson College	D+18.1	9.8	✓
11	Research Co.	D+19.0	10.7	✓
12	Ipsos	D+20.3	12.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Dem 97%	0.001	✓