Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+9.2
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | EPIC-MRA | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Trafalgar Group | D+9.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+9.4 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+9.4 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Target Insyght | D+10.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+3.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | D+13.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Research Co. | D+16.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+16.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | Glengariff Group | D+16.7 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | Strategic National | D+18.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Ipsos | D+19.3 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (21)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-11-05 | 827 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-04 | 1817 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-11-04 | 701 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 880 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-29 | 764 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| Glengariff Group | 2018-10-26 | 600 | D+16.7 | 10 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-10-25 | 400 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 822 | D+9.4 | 3 |
| Target Insyght | 2018-10-23 | 800 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Tarrance Group | 2018-10-21 | 605 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2018-10-20 | 600 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | 2018-10-17 | 169 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2018-10-16 | 600 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-10-04 | 654 | D+8.8 | 2 |
| Glengariff Group | 2018-10-01 | 600 | D+18.0 | 11 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2018-09-23 | 600 | D+23.0 | 16 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-18 | 1150 | D+19.3 | 13 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2018-09-12 | 1009 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| Target Insyght | 2018-09-12 | 800 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| Strategic National | 2018-09-08 | 1000 | D+18.0 | 11 |