Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Michigan Senate

In the 2018 Michigan Senate race, Debbie Stabenow (D) won by about 7 points.

John James· Sitting U.S. Representative · voting record →

Actual result

D+6.5

Final polls said

D+9.2

14 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Tarrance Group	D+7.0	0.5	✓
2	EPIC-MRA	D+7.0	0.5	✓
3	Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research	D+7.0	0.5	✓
4	Trafalgar Group	D+9.0	2.5	✓
5	Emerson College	D+9.4	2.9	✓
6	Target Insyght	D+10.0	3.5	✓
7	Mitchell Research & Communications	D+3.0	3.5	✓
8	Change Research	D+2.0	4.5	✓
9	Gravis Marketing	D+13.0	6.5	✓
10	Research Co.	D+16.0	9.5	✓
11	Marketing Resource Group (MRG)	D+16.0	9.5	✓
12	Glengariff Group	D+16.7	10.2	✓
13	Strategic National	D+18.0	11.5	✓
14	Ipsos	D+19.3	12.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 90%	0.010	✓