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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Minnesota Senate
In the 2018 Minnesota Senate race, Amy Klobuchar (D) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
D+24.1
Final polls said
D+15.5
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Cloud State University | D+26.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+16.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+15.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 16.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 18.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-039
Change Research2018-11-032
Research Co.2018-11-024
Research Co.2018-11-021
SurveyUSA2018-10-303
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota Senate race?
Amy Klobuchar (D) won, by about 24.1 points (D+24.1).
When was the 2018 Minnesota Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.