Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+15.5
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+15.4 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+15.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | St. Cloud State University | D+26.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 953 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 953 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-30 | 600 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-30 | 600 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2018-10-23 | 420 | D+26.0 | 2 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2018-10-23 | 420 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-10-16 | 800 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-10-16 | 800 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-12 | 1413 | D+3.0 | 8 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-12 | 1413 | D+9.0 | 15 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-02 | 637 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-02 | 637 | D+28.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-09-11 | 800 | D+30.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-09-11 | 800 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-07 | 574 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-07 | 574 | D+15.0 | 9 |