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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Minnesota Senate
In the 2018 Minnesota Senate race, Amy Klobuchar (D) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
D+24.1
Final polls said
D+15.5
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Cloud State University | D+26.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+16.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+15.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 16.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 18.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-039
Change Research2018-11-032
Research Co.2018-11-024
Research Co.2018-11-021
SurveyUSA2018-10-303
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota Senate race?
Amy Klobuchar (D) won, by about 24.1 points (D+24.1).
When was the 2018 Minnesota Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.