Toss-up · 2018 Senate

New Jersey Senate

In the 2018 New Jersey Senate race, Robert Menendez (D) won by about 11 points.

Robert Menendez· Sitting U.S. Representative · voting record →

Actual result

D+11.2

Final polls said

D+8.2

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy	D+12.0	0.8	✓
2	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+12.0	0.8	✓
3	Change Research	D+10.0	1.2	✓
4	YouGov	D+10.0	1.2	✓
5	Vox Populi Polling	D+8.0	3.2	✓
6	Quinnipiac University	D+15.0	3.8	✓
7	Fairleigh Dickinson University	D+6.0	5.2	✓
8	Emerson College	D+5.3	5.9	✓
9	Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling	D+5.0	6.2	✓
10	National Research	D+2.0	9.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 94%	0.003	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—