Actual result
D+11.2
Final polls said
D+8.2
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+12.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+12.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+10.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Vox Populi Polling | D+8.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+6.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+6.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+5.3 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | National Research | D+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 1006 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-11-01 | 1115 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2018-10-28 | 598 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-28 | 814 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 659 | D+5.3 | 6 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2018-10-16 | 496 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| National Research | 2018-10-15 | 600 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-13 | 873 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-10-13 | 527 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| National Research | 2018-10-08 | 600 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-04 | 845 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-30 | 794 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-09-29 | 1058 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2018-09-28 | 508 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2018-09-23 | 531 | D+1.9 | 9 |