← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Senate
New York Senate
In the 2018 New York Senate race, Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) won by about 34 points.
Actual result
D+34.0
Final polls said
D+25.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+28.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+25.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Siena College | D+23.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2018-11-025
Siena College2018-10-3010
Quinnipiac University2018-10-138
Siena College2018-09-241
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New York Senate race?
Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) won, by about 34.0 points (D+34.0).
When was the 2018 New York Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.