Actual result
D+33.4
Final polls said
D+25.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+25.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+28.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+25.6 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+25.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | D+23.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+28.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2018-10-30 | 641 | D+23.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-13 | 852 | D+25.0 | 8 |
| Siena College | 2018-09-24 | 701 | D+32.0 | 1 |