Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Ohio Senate

In the 2018 Ohio Senate race, Sherrod Brown (D) won by about 7 points.

Actual result

D+6.8

Final polls said

D+11.4

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+5.8	1.0	✓
2	Gravis Marketing	D+9.0	2.2	✓
3	Change Research	D+10.0	3.2	✓
4	American Pulse Research & Polling	D+10.2	3.3	✓
5	Ipsos	D+10.2	3.3	✓
6	Cygnal	D+10.4	3.6	✓
7	University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics	D+12.0	5.2	✓
8	Research Co.	D+14.0	7.2	✓
9	Marist College	D+14.0	7.2	✓
10	Morning Consult	D+16.0	9.2	✓
11	Suffolk University	D+17.6	10.8	✓
12	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	D+19.5	12.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 95%	0.002	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓