Actual result
D+6.8
Final polls said
D+11.4
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.8 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+9.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+10.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Pulse Research & Polling | D+10.2 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+10.2 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cygnal | D+10.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | D+12.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Research Co. | D+14.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+14.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Morning Consult | D+16.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | Suffolk University | D+17.6 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+19.5 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 923 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Research Co. | 2018-11-02 | 450 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-30 | 503 | D+10.4 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-29 | 789 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-27 | 566 | D+5.8 | 1 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2018-10-23 | 1051 | D+19.5 | 13 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-10-06 | 500 | D+17.6 | 11 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2018-10-03 | 1017 | D+16.5 | 10 |
| University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | 2018-09-22 | 1000 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2018-09-19 | 1003 | D+10.2 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2018-09-18 | 564 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-17 | 1074 | D+10.2 | 3 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2018-09-10 | 1048 | D+17.4 | 11 |
| Morning Consult | 2018-09-06 | 1592 | D+16.0 | 9 |