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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Ohio Senate
In the 2018 Ohio Senate race, Sherrod Brown (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.8
Final polls said
D+11.4
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+9.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+10.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Pulse Research & Polling | D+10.2 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+10.2 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cygnal | D+10.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | D+12.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Research Co. | D+14.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marist College | D+14.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | Morning Consult | D+16.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Suffolk University | D+17.6 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+19.5 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
14 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-033
Research Co.2018-11-027
Cygnal2018-10-304
Gravis Marketing2018-10-292
Emerson College2018-10-271
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Ohio Senate race?
Sherrod Brown (D) won, by about 6.8 points (D+6.8).
When was the 2018 Ohio Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.