Actual result
D+4.5
Final polls said
D+10.6
17 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Frederick Polls | D+7.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Civiqs | D+7.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | D+1.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Meeting Street Insights | D+8.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | D+8.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+9.8 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+9.9 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | SSRS | D+10.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Harper Polling | D+10.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | KFF | D+10.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | D+11.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 16 | RMG Research | D+12.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+12.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 18 | Public Policy Polling | D+12.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 19 | Suffolk University | D+12.4 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 20 | Swayable | D+12.5 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 21 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+18.4 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 22 | Marist College | D+19.0 | 14.5 | ✓ |
| 23 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+19.0 | 14.5 | ✓ |
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Polls | 2020-10-30 | 676 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-30 | 655 | D+12.5 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 855 | D+9.9 | 5 |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | 2020-10-27 | 750 | D+1.4 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-27 | 901 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2020-10-27 | 800 | D+19.0 | 14 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-27 | 1103 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Meeting Street Insights | 2020-10-26 | 600 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-26 | 614 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-25 | 1034 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 386 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 637 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-25 | 800 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Harper Polling | 2020-10-24 | 504 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-23 | 911 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2020-10-18 | 732 | D+18.4 | 14 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-17 | 1155 | D+12.1 | 8 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-13 | 1211 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-13 | 721 | D+4.4 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-11 | 627 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-10 | 500 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-10 | 669 | D+13.0 | 8 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-09 | 800 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-04 | 911 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-03 | 1232 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Impact Research | 2020-09-25 | 822 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-09-22 | 921 | D+13.0 | 8 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2020-09-20 | 705 | D+10.3 | 6 |
| Harper Polling | 2020-09-19 | 612 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 1092 | D+19.0 | 14 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-13 | 500 | D+12.4 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-13 | 653 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-09-12 | 596 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2020-09-11 | 787 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| KFF | 2020-09-06 | 1172 | D+10.0 | 5 |