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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Mike Levin (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.3
Final polls said
D+16.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 91% | 0.009 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2020-10-1014
SurveyUSA2020-09-136
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Mike Levin (D) won, by about 6.3 points (D+6.3).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.